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Business Cycles in the Contemporary World
Description, Causes, Aggregation, and Synchronization, Contributions to Economics
ISBN/EAN: 9783790815320
Umbreit-Nr.: 1467359
Sprache:
Englisch
Umfang: x, 165 S.
Format in cm: 1 x 23.3 x 15.7
Einband:
kartoniertes Buch
Erschienen am 27.11.2002
- Zusatztext
- gratefully acknowledge the Bavarian Young Scientists Grant (Pro motionsstipendium nach dem Gesetz zur Forderung des bayerischen wis senschaftlichen Nachwuchses) for financial support during the first years of my dissertation project. Munich,August 2002 BerndSilssmutli Contents 1. Introduction. 1 1. 1 BusinessCycle Research:21st CenturyPerspective 1 1. 1. 1 TheClassicView. 3 1. 1. 2 From CBC toRBC School.
- Kurztext
- Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras
- Autorenportrait
- Inhaltsangabe1. Introduction.- 1.1 Business Cycle Research: 21st Century Perspective.- 1.1.1 The Classic View.- 1.1.2 From CBC to RBC School.- 1.2 Recent Empirical Findings in Favor of CBC.- 1.1.1 Aggregate Investment Fluctuations and Business Cycles.- 1.1.2 The Cyclicality of the Aggregate Investment Series.- 1.1.3 Investment, the RBC View and Disaggregated Dynamics.- I.Methodology.- 2. General Considerations and Historiography.- 2.1 Methodologies: Econometrics vs. Natural Sciences.- 2.2 The Econometric Approach to Time Series Analysis.- 3. The Analysis of Cyclical Dynamics.- 3.1 The Detrending Problem.- 3.2 Volatility and Spectral Analysis.- 3.2.1 Contribution-to-Variance Analysis.- 3.2.2 Spectral Analysis: The Univariate Case.- 3.2.3 The Analysis of Complex Roots.- 3.2.4 Spectral Analysis: The Multivariate Case.- II. National, Supra- and International Cycles.- 4. The G7 and Eurol5 Economies: 1960 - 2000.- 4.1 Data and Strategy.- 4.2 National Uni- and Bivariate Stylized Facts.- 4.2.1 General Salient Facts.- 4.2.2 Robust Univariate Stylized Facts: National Cycles.- 4.2.3 Robust Bivariate Stylized Facts: National Cycles.- 4.3 Supranational Bivariate Stylized Facts.- 5. Mode-Locking and the Global Cycle.- 5.1 Introduction and Motivation of the Discussion.- 5.2 Generalizing Economic Cycles' Mode-Lock Modelling.- 5.3 A Model Incorporating Information Externalities.- 5.1.1 The Model without Information Externalities.- 5.1.2 Introducing Information Externalities.- 5.1.3 Calibration of the Model and Some Simulations.- 5.4 Outlook and Concluding Remark.- III. The Sectoral Constitution of Macro-Cycles.- 6. An Aggregation Problem for Linear Models?.- 6.1 Description of US Business Cycles.- 6.1.1 Business Cycles in Central US NIPA Time Series.- 6.1.2 Cycles in Disaggregated US Manufacturing Investment.- 6.2 Testing Autoregressivity and Aggregate Feedback.- 6.3 Linear Models of the Aggregation Process.- 6.4 Evaluation of Linear Models.- 7. The Synchronization of Sectoral Cycles.- 7.1 Definitions of Synchronization.- 7.2 A Recent Approach: Method and Findings.- 7.3 The "Shift-Win"-Approach: Method and Findings.- 8. A Non-Linear Synchronization Model.- 8.1 Theoretical Underpinning of the Model.- 8.1.1 The Medium-Term Investment Objective: Smoothing.- 8.1.2 The Short-Term Investment Objective: Herding.- 8.1.3 The Integrated Model: Smoothing and Herding.- 8.1.4 The Synchronization Mechanism.- 8.2 A Thorough Simulation Study.- 8.2.1 Calibration as an Alternative to Estimation.- 8.2.2 Setting Up the Simulation Strategy and Determining Priors.- 8.2.3. Monte Carlo Simulations of the Model Incorporating Shocks.- 8.2.4 Evaluation of the Model and Outlook.- 9. Conclusion.- Abbreviations.- References.